COP21 RIPPLES Scenario Explorer now online

The focus of the COP21 RIPPLES analysis is on energy systems. Only CO₂ energy-related emissions were reported or collected, excluding land use-related.

Global scenarios can be divided into three broad categories:

1. “Current NDC”: Paris compatible scenarios with NDCs, where countries follow a pathway similar to a full implementation of the targets and strategies included in the current NDCs until 2030, while they accelerate action after 2030
2. “Enhanced NDC”: Paris compatible scenarios with early action, where countries accelerate action from 2020 compared to the ambition level of the set of NDCs
3. “1.5°C compatible scenarios”, where countries implement very deep decarbonisation strategies, that brings them on a pathway towards the 1.5°C-related benchmarks

Paris compatibility of the “Current NDC” and “Enhanced NDC” global scenarios was defined by meeting a carbon budget in the range of 1.000-1.100 GtCO₂ for energy CO₂ emissions (rounded to nearest 50) for the 2010-2050 period. In “Current-NDCs”, the global emissions level in 2030 (CO₂-energy emissions only) is between 36 and 40 GtCO₂, which represents the level of global ambition of the set of NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC. The global “Current NDC” scenarios do not represent individual NDCs, but the global emissions level estimated to be reached if all NDCs are met. According to IPCC SR15, such level of emissions in 2030 is out-of-the range for “no- and low-overshoot” 1.5°C scenarios.

The development of national scenarios and their integration into national policy discussions has been provided by local research institutions. Scenario characterisation has not been harmonised across the board. Instead each team has developed the set of scenarios that could best respond to the current domestic policy discussions. They all generally include an NDC scenario which represents a pathway where the country implements the targets and strategies included in its current NDC up to 2030.

The scenario data can also be downloaded from Zenodo