Filed in Deliverables
Implications of 1.5°C Versus 2°C for Global Transformation Pathways
New version submitted in March 2019
In this deliverable we reviewed the literature and publicly available data on 1.5°C compatible pathways. At the global level, recent papers based on Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) confirm the need for a rapid decarbonisation in the short term and the key role of energy efficiency improvements as enabling factor for 1.5°C.
In its focus on the EU28 and in its aim to use recent scenario data that tracks more up-to-date technological and policy developments, this deliverable relied mostly on the “beyond 2°C” pathway published by the IEA/ETP as a proxy for a Paris Compatible pathway. Note, however, that this pathway is aimed at a warming limit of 1.75°C and hence fails to achieve the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement.
We provide insights on how to enhance the level of ambition in selected EU countries, with a focus on the power and transport sector. In general, our results show that a beyond 2°C scenario would require accelerated actions in all EU countries compared to a 2°C, or reference technology scenario. The EU power sector should be completely decarbonized by around 2040-2050 and then go below zero in the second half of the century. By 2050, there will be virtually no fossil fuels-based power plants in operation in Europe. Countries currently strongly reliant on coal (like Poland) should quickly transform their power sector. Emissions in the transport sector should rapidly decrease over time with increased electrification rates.