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Deliverable 3.3

Filed in Deliverables

Assessing the Technology Innovation Implications of NDCs, Technology Portfolio Choices, and International Competitiveness in Clean Technologies

This report assesses the technology innovation implications of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), technology portfolio choices, and international competitiveness in clean technologies. Chapter 1 consists of a quantitative analysis showing the export and innovative strength of countries in 14 low-carbon technologies. Most countries of the analysed panel exhibit a specialisation in at least one low-carbon technology. Chapter 2 estimates experience curves of energy technologies and finds that that it is likely that wind, solar and storage technologies will become much cheaper in the near future, and that this progress can be accelerated by increasing near-term investments. Fossil fuel and nuclear based technologies have only a low chance of significant future progress.

Country case studies present past experiences with low-carbon technologies, future possibilities, and discuss different policy options. Using the example of wind energy in Brazil and South Africa, the results of chapter 3 suggest that a rightly designed climate policy together with Local Content Requirements (LCR) can indeed be a driving force for a strong local industry supporting decarbonisation. Chapter 4 highlights that industrial and technological competitiveness are not also always related and identifies the main barriers in China to further innovation in its photovoltaic (PV) sector. Chapter 5 determines the technological potential and competitiveness of electric mobility technologies in Italy. Chapter 6 presents an analysis of a technology innovation system (TIS) of concentrated solar power (CSP) in South Africa and identifies certain technologies in which South Africa can create a comparative advantage. Chapter 7 finds positive prospects for wind energy in the Brazilian climate policy.

Published: 2nd August 2018
Author: G. Zachmann et al.